WHAT IS A MODEL ?
A model is a structured representation of a theory. It ’s descriptive of the theory, not necessarily descriptive of the phenomena. Often we can use a model to derive the predictive elements of a theory.
A model might be in the form of an explicit mathematical statement, or it might just be a conceptual structuring.
An example is a game-theory model of the poker-is-a-struggle –for-the-ante theory.
You can use a game –theory model to derive a it’s typically heads-up after the first round of betting, we can use that same game-theory model to determine the hands with which we should be willing to call an opening bet. We can extend the use of the same model to determine when to bet, call, or bluff on the river.
For a game such as draw poker, where in most games the players tend to be relatively tight and you only have two rounds of betting, you can use a game-theory model to almost completely specify a winning playing strategy.
That approach,however, just doesn’t extend for a game with more than two betting rounds. It doesn’t help all that much for a game such as Holdem.
Although a game-theory model does help us analyze some situations, a game like Holdem requires a different approach to the game.
Holdem is very complex, and it’s doubtful that we could formulate a complete model of the game-even if we could do so, the mathematics of solving it would very likely be intractable.
We can, however, develop theories related to particular aspects of the game, and use the models that those theories suggest to analyze tightly defined situations.
The game-theory model suggested by the ante theory is one such use.
As I’ve already mentioned, that model can be used productively to analyze opening hand requirements in tight game conditions.
Another model is suggested by the theory that poker is a struggle between made hands and drawing hands.
This theory suggests the use of a multinomial-probability model to analyze the play of drawing hands.
By “multinomial” I mean a model that assumes multiple discrete outcomes, such as win large pot, win small pot, lose small pot, lose large pot.
Multinomial is like flipping a coin with more than two sides. A dice game is an example of a multinomial game.
The theory that money flows bad players to good players suggests a conceptual model of the game which implies that table selection involves looking for a table with large pots.
This step from theory of model is not always an obvious one-but it’s an important one in an analysis of the game.
Pick the Right Table / Picking a Seat / Theories of Poker / Betting Theory: The Odds
A Theory of Starting Hand Value
A Theory of Flop Play: Counting Outs and Evaluating Draws
The Dynamics of Game Conditions / Table Image / Player Stereotypes
Women and Poker / Spread-Limit Games / Double Bet on the End Games / Kill Games
Short-handed Games / Tournaments / No-limit and Pot-Limit Poker
