THE SITUATION
It’s an unusually loose-aggressive game -at least unusual by Las Vegas standards.
The table had several very aggressive players and several very loose players.
No one other than our hero was a top local pro. Our hero in this hand is on the button and is dealt 9 7
.
PRE-FLOP BETTING
Five players had called the blind by the time the action got to our hero with the 9 7
. Should he call,fold, or raise?
If you’re taking an odds perspective to the game, then you need to think about a raise in this situation.
There is a popular misconception, repeated in many poker books, that you should only raise if your hand figures to be the best hand.
That’s not how to get the money in Holdem. You should raise whenever your chances of winning are greater than the odds you’re getting on the raise.
Based on Turbo Texas Holdem simulations, 9 7
, from late position against a field of from five to seven loose players, will win over 20 percent of the time.
That makes the hand about a 4-1 underdog.With five players already having called, and the two blinds left to act, you’ll get between 5-1 and 7-1 on a raise, and you should take that profit.
However, with only five sure callers, a raise with 9 7
would be marginal.
If the players in the hand play very badly after the flop, you might want to raise.
In general though, five players are not quite enough to raise with this hand.
There are arguments for not raising, based on different theoretical perspectives.
I won’t go into those arguments here because when you’re in a poker hand with four or more active players the dominant perspective to take is an odds perspective.Our hero called.
That’s probably the best play in this situation.It’s a close decision.
The small blind folded and the big blind raised.Everyone called, including our hero, but our hero made a mistake by not reraising.
Now there are six active players, and getting 6-1 odds when you’re only a 4-1 underdog is pretty good proposition.
That’s the case even though you can usually expect a player who raised from one of the blinds to have a much better than average hand.
That’s because even weak players tend not to raise with many hands from the blinds because they will be in poor position in all future poker betting rounds.