Value Bets
“Value bet ” is a term used for betting when you just think you have the best hand, but “best hand” is a broad concept with a definition that’s dependent on the situation.
Value Bets on the River
Once all the cards have been dealt, it’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking that all that matters now is who has ended up with the best hand.
Even here, having the best hand is not a reason to bet. Let’s say you have a small pair, maybe a hand like A 
4 , and the board is Q T 5 
7 
4.
It’s possible you have the best hand–maybe your opponent might have a K J and have been drawing to a straight, for example.
Even if you’re 90 percent sure that’s the hand he has, you probably shouldn’t bet.
The relevant question isn’t whether you have the best hand, it’s whether you have the best hand if he calls. If so, then a bet by you would be a value bet.
Value Bets with the Best Hand on Intermediate Rounds
On the river, the only consideration about the hand is the likelihood that your opponent has a worse hand than yours and will call (or a better hand and will fold).
On intermediate betting rounds, when there are more cards to come, it gets a little more complicated.
You have to consider not just the current strength of the hands, but the drawing power of both your hand and your opponents’ hands.
Value Betting Draws
It’s common in Holdem to have multiway situations on the flop where the hand that is getting value from bets is the best draw, not the best hand.
For example, consider a four-handed situation where the players hold
Player 1 K Q
Player 2 A 9
Player 3 J J
Player 4 T 8
And the flop is 9 7 3 .
The best hand is held by player 3, with a pair of Jacks, but the only hand that will profit from a bet is player-1 the flush draw.
Any Heart, King, or Queen will make player 1 the best hand.
That’s fourteen cards if we look at all the hands. With three callers, any hand that has a greater then 25 percent chance of developing into the winning hand will profit from a bet or raise.
In the four-handed scenario as illustrated, the flush draw with the two overcards is the only hand that has a winning potential higher than 25 percent.
The winning potentials are
Player 1 45%
Player 2 18%
Player 3 20%
Player 4 17%
We discuss this hand in a little more detail in the chapter on the theory of flop play. For now, just realize that having the best hand does not mean you have the best hand.
By that I mean the best poker hand on the flop is not always favored to end up the best poker hand by the river.
What is most important is that the best hand is not always favored to win the most money.
Pick the Right Table / Picking a Seat / Theories of Poker / Betting Theory: The Odds
A Theory of Starting Hand Value
A Theory of Flop Play: Counting Outs and Evaluating Draws
The Dynamics of Game Conditions / Table Image / Player Stereotypes
Women and Poker / Spread-Limit Games / Double Bet on the End Games / Kill Games
Short-handed Games / Tournaments / No-limit and Pot-Limit Poker
